Egypt is set to reduce its liquefied natural gas imports by approximately 11% next year, following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approval of a major gas export deal with Cairo.
A source familiar with Egypt's gas import plans, who requested anonymity, told Al Manassa that the decision is driven by the lower cost of Israeli pipeline gas compared to LNG.
“Average LNG shipments during the summer peak reached 16 cargoes per month, each carrying about 150,000 cubic meters,” the source explained. “That’s roughly 2.4 million cubic meters monthly, valued at around $800 million.”
Under the planned cuts, Egypt would trim 264,000 cubic meters of gas per month, saving over $80 million monthly.
Netanyahu announced on Wednesday that he had approved “the largest gas deal in the history of Israel,” worth approximately $34.7 billion, with around 52% of revenue projected to flow into Israel’s state treasury. The agreement extends Israel’s gas exports to Egypt through 2040.
Originally amended in August, the deal increases contracted quantities by 130 billion cubic meters and maintains price indexing to Brent Crude, with modifications for future phases. According to media reports, the current export price is about $7.7 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)—well below the $12–14 range for LNG.
A strategic meeting is expected in the coming weeks between Egypt’s state-run gas company EGAS and Israeli suppliers to finalize pricing and delivery volumes, the informed source explained to Al Manassa. “Supplies are expected to increase to over 1 billion cubic feet per day by Q1 2026, rising to 1.5 or 1.6 billion by the end of 2026 into early 2027,” the source noted, up from 900 million currently.
By the agreement’s terms, Egypt will receive about 130 billion cubic meters of Israeli gas by 2040, or until the contracted volume is fully delivered.
Egypt’s LNG imports have surged to $7.2 billion over the past 10 months, compared to $3.85 billion in the same period last year—an 87% increase, according to the petroleum ministry.
Tensions between Cairo and Tel Aviv briefly halted gas flows in June, after Israel accused Egypt of violating the Camp David Accords by deploying troops near the border. However, sources suggest the real motive was Israel’s demand for a $3 per MMBtu price hike. Supply resumed gradually by late June.
The geopolitics of gas in the region remain fraught. Egypt, once self-sufficient after the discovery of the Zohr gas field in 2015, now faces widening shortfalls. Domestic production has dropped to 4.5 billion cubic feet per day, against local consumption of 6 billion. The result has been repeated blackouts and industrial disruptions.
