The US-Israeli war on Iran is deepening disruption across key waterways, dimming hopes that major shipping firms will return to the Suez Canal route and raising the stakes around the Strait of Hormuz, two maritime-transport experts told Al Manassa. They said the shock to global trade echoes the COVID-19 era, but is being driven this time by volatile security and political risks.
The renewed uncertainty is already pushing up marine insurance and freight costs, lengthening voyages and complicating schedules, while exposing Egypt to fresh pressure on Suez Canal income and on exports bound for Gulf markets if routes through the Red Sea and Hormuz become harder to use.
Medhat El Kady, head of the International Transport Services Division at the Alexandria Chamber of Commerce, said developments in the Red Sea will directly affect ships headed to the Suez Canal, driving higher insurance and freight rates, extending voyage times and disrupting global shipping timetables.
As the Iran-Israel war escalated, Maersk announced it was rerouting some voyages back around the Cape of Good Hope, despite its announcement two months ago of a gradual return for some services to transit via the Suez Canal. The company said it was acting in response to “unexpected constraints in the Red Sea region.”
Over the past three years, Suez Canal revenues have fallen sharply, hit by turmoil linked to Israel’s war on Gaza, with revenues dropping to $3.6 billion in 2024-2025, from $8.8 billion in 2022-2023.
“The fallout from closing the Strait of Hormuz will be the most economically dangerous, because it is the world’s energy artery,” El Kady said, describing the war’s broader consequences.
Iran’s regime on Saturday announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime corridors and a route for about 20% of global oil production passes.
El Kady said any disruption in the strait would trigger an immediate rise in oil prices, increase marine fuel costs, and drive up global freight costs, while also risking potential transit crises for Egyptian exports headed to the Gulf.
Ahmed Tarek, commercial director for the Ocean Network Express (ONE) shipping alliance, said Egyptian exports to the Gulf would be the hardest hit if the strait were closed, noting that available alternatives, led by the Cape of Good Hope route, remain more costly.
He added that the Red Sea also faces a renewed crisis with ships being targeted in the Bab Al-Mandab area, further complicating navigation and pushing global supply chains toward chaos and uncertainty.
Tarek expected a near-term rise in marine insurance rates, saying shipping firms are monitoring developments moment by moment with clients and steering vessels toward safer areas, pending a clearer picture in the days ahead.
