With the region at a pivotal moment, hopes for a deal between Tehran and Washington are clashing with hardline stances and threats of renewed conflict. The hours to come are expected to shape the military, economic, and political landscape of the Middle East.
While the US-Iranian truce is set to expire on Wednesday, the US remains optimistic about reaching an agreement that Washington considers “FAR BETTER” than the 2015 deal. However, Tehran is refusing to participate in a second round of negotiations scheduled for tomorrow in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.
The latest developments
As Islamabad prepares to host the second round of talks, the US stated that Vice President JD Vance will travel today for the negotiations.
AP reported this afternoon that Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will travel to the Pakistani capital. Iranian official statements, however, indicate a boycott of the dialogue in light of US threats and the continuing blockade imposed on ports and the Strait of Hormuz.
“We do not accept negotiating under the shadow of threats,” Ghalibaf posted on X on Monday night, adding that the Islamic Republic is preparing to “reveal new cards on the battlefield.”
On Monday night, the Wall Street Journal cited unnamed “people familiar with the matter” as saying Tehran had told regional mediators it would send a delegation to Pakistan on Tuesday. This has not occurred as of the time of this report, adding further ambiguity to the future of the truce and negotiations.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News that the US is “on the brink of a deal” with Iran. “The deal is good, unlike the disastrous agreement signed by Barack Obama,” she said, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal later canceled by Donald Trump. While Leavitt discussed the possibility of an agreement, she noted that “Trump has several options, and he will not hesitate to use them; he has already proven that he does what he says.”
For his part, Trump ruled out extending the deadline that expires tomorrow. He told Bloomberg that the blockade on Iranian ports will continue until a final agreement is reached. Trump also told CNBC that if Iran does not respond to US demands, he “expects to be bombing.”
Two points determining the fate of negotiations
With military threats, the US is pressing Iran into an agreement that ensures Tehran does not continue its missile and nuclear programs. Iranian and US official reports and statements indicate the two countries have come a long way in negotiations, which Trump described two days ago as “very good talks,” and Ghalibaf stated had made progress.
However, two sticking points remain from where the first round of talks in Islamabad ended 10 days ago: nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz.
On the nuclear issue, the US proposed in the first round of negotiations to suspend all Iranian nuclear activities for 20 years. Iran requested the duration be between three and five years, which Washington rejected.
According to CNN, the latest Iranian proposal was a temporary halt to enrichment for 10 years, followed by another decade in which Iran agrees to enrich at levels far below those required for weapons. Trump, however, opposes any enrichment at all, even a suspension for 20 years.
In exchange, the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets as part of ongoing negotiations, in return for Iran surrendering its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane remains a point of contention. Iran wishes to collect fees on transit through the international waterway to compensate for losses incurred during the war. The US argues for “guaranteeing freedom of navigation” and ensuring Tehran does not use the strait as a pressure card later.
As ambiguity grows over the future of the negotiations and the truce, military preparations on both sides continue. Reports indicate that a third aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, is on its way to the Middle East, while Iran warns of weapons it has not yet revealed and says it is currently updating and resupplying missile and drone launchers faster than before the war.
