Tensions in the Middle East eased on the morning of May 6, 2026, as US President Donald Trump announced the suspension of “Project Freedom,” a military operation launched two days ago to “liberate” ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The move comes amid reports that Washington and Tehran are nearing a preliminary agreement to end the war that has persisted since late February.
On May 5, Trump stated he would pause military actions in an attempt to reach a deal with Iran. Writing on Truth Social, he noted that “Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.”
In this context, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that offensive operations against Iran had concluded. Speaking at a White House press conference, Rubio said that “Operation Epic Fury” had ended and that the current US priority is “reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” which he noted had been open before the US-Israeli aggression against Iran.
Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing a Pakistani source involved in mediation, that both parties are “very close” to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding (MoU). This aligned with an earlier report by the US news outlet Axios, where a source added, “We will finish this very soon… we are getting there.”
Citing unnamed US sources, Axios reported that Washington and Tehran are within reach of a preliminary agreement. The MoU is expected to pave the way for broader, more detailed negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and post-war arrangements.
48 hours for a deal
According to Axios, Washington expects Iranian responses to a package of key points within the next 48 hours. While no final deal has been sealed, observers suggest this is the “closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.”
The draft proposal includes an Iranian commitment to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for a gradual lifting of US sanctions, the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, and the easing of maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the agreement remains contingent on a subsequent final deal. This leaves two potential outcomes: a gradual de-escalation of the conflict or a return to hostilities should the talks collapse.
Axios also reported that Washington is under the impression that “Iranian leadership is divided and it may be hard to forge consensus across the different factions.” Some US officials remain skeptical about whether an agreement can be sustained, even at the level of preliminary principles.
A 14-point memorandum
Despite these concerns, US officials told Axios that Trump’s decision to de-escalate in the Strait of Hormuz and avoid the collapse of a fragile ceasefire was driven by what they described as “progress” in the ongoing talks.
The MoU currently being negotiated between Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and Iranian officials consists of 14 points. It aims to bring an end to the war and initiate a 30-day transitional phase to draft a comprehensive agreement in Islamabad.
During this period, shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be eased alongside a reduction of the US naval blockade. These measures would be reinstated if the negotiations fail.
The nuclear program at the heart of the dispute
Uranium enrichment remains the primary point of contention. Proposals for a suspension on enrichment range from 12 to 15 years, according to Axios, while the US has pushed for a more stringent 20-year halt. Iran has reportedly suggested a period of no more than five years.
The negotiations also include a provision for an enhanced international inspection regime, allowing for “snap” inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), alongside a potential commitment to decommission underground nuclear facilities.
Conversely, Washington is linking any sanctions relief to tangible Iranian steps, including halting enrichment activities and relinquishing portions of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, matters that remain under dispute.
While the US administration expresses cautious optimism, Marco Rubio remarked that drafting an agreement is not a single day matter, calling the issue “extremely complex and technical.” He also questioned the ability of certain Iranian leaders to reach a unified decision, describing some as “crazy.”
In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that his country would only accept a “fair and comprehensive agreement,” stating that Tehran would defend its “legitimate rights and interests” in the current talks.
On the ground, risks remain
The impact of the war remains severe. The escalation in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted approximately 20% of global oil supplies, triggering an energy crisis that has rippled through international markets.
Recent weeks have seen a cycle of retaliatory attacks and an intensifying naval blockade. While Trump’s temporary suspension of military measures to facilitate talks led to a noticeable drop in oil prices, the potential for re-escalation remains high given the fragility of the ceasefire and ongoing disputes over uranium enrichment and maritime arrangements.
Between American optimism and Iran’s insistence on strict conditions, the situation remains between two extremes: an agreement that ends the war or a new round of conflict as volatile as the last.
