Egypt’s water system can absorb any decline in the Nile’s flow, an Egyptian official told Al Manassa, after Sudan reported that the river’s water levels temporarily dropped in the second week of July due to reduced releases from Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Sudan’s General Directorate of Dams at the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation said in a statement Thursday that “the overall water situation remains stable,” despite a temporary drop in daily inflows to the Roseires Reservoir between July 7 and 9.
The senior source at Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the GERD file, said the decline coincided with lower rainfall over the Ethiopian Highlands, while daily data sharing on the dam’s releases remains suspended.
According to the Sudanese statement, daily inflows to the Roseires Reservoir fell from 207 million cubic meters to 129 million cubic meters, a decrease of 78 million cubic meters per day. This decline reduced downstream releases from the Roseires Dam by 100 million cubic meters per day and from the Sennar Dam by about 82 million cubic meters per day between July 7 and 10, causing temporary drops in Nile levels at key monitoring stations, including 1.5 meters at Roseires, 1.7 meters at Wad Al-Eis, 1.6 meters at Wad Madani, 1.08 meters at Khartoum, 94 centimeters at Halfaya, and 54 centimeters at Shendi.
Despite the decline, the Sudanese ministry said water levels north of Khartoum remained higher than at the same time last year as of July 15.
The ministry said White Nile inflows and water levels remain above the long-term average and last year’s levels, while the Jebel Aulia Dam continues to record above-average water levels and releases. It added that Blue Nile inflows also remain above both the long-term average and last year’s levels.
The General Directorate of Dams said the temporary decline resulted from reduced Blue Nile inflows after lower releases from the GERD. It added that the dam has altered the river’s hydrology, requiring Sudan to adjust reservoir operations to maintain stable water supplies and target water levels.
The ministry said a permanent committee led by Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation Essam Qurashi is monitoring the water situation around the clock, with dam managers and hydrological modeling experts overseeing reservoir operations.
The Egyptian source told Al Manassa that Sudanese reservoirs are lowered every year around this time to prepare for floodwaters from Ethiopia, warning that retaining full storage while Ethiopia releases large volumes of water could pose operational risks.
The latest developments underscored Egypt’s longstanding demand for a legally binding agreement governing GERD’s operation, including a clear mechanism for sharing data that would allow downstream countries to safely manage their water infrastructure, the source said.
Egypt is also monitoring the Nile flood season using satellite imagery and advanced mathematical models to estimate inflows to Lake Nasser, the source said, adding that investments made in recent years have strengthened the flexibility of the country’s water system and its ability to withstand temporary fluctuations in river inflows.
Egypt recently expanded the Toshka Spillway to improve its capacity to handle high floodwaters and protect the High Dam, as part of broader efforts to strengthen water resources management.
Negotiations among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the GERD have stalled without reaching a binding agreement on the dam’s filling and operation. Cairo declared the talks dead in late 2023, blaming Ethiopia’s refusal to reach a deal that safeguards the interests of all three countries. Egypt says it remains committed to protecting its water rights under international law.
