The US dollar rose against the Egyptian pound in Sunday trading, breaking through 53.50 Egyptian pounds for the first time, up from 52.86 pounds at Thursday’s close, as foreign investors pulled money from the local market amid ongoing regional tensions, two analysts said.
The dollar was priced at 53.63 pounds for sale and 53.53 pounds for purchase at the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr as of publication, amid continued heavy selling by foreign investors of treasury bills and bonds listed on the Egyptian Exchange.
Mostafa Shafie, head of research at Acumen Asset Management, said reports indicate that $6 billion in hot money left the market during the month of Ramadan, adding that the figure has likely risen further as pressure persists.
Shafie told Al Manassa that the outflows are directly reflected in the exchange rate, as investor exits increase demand for dollars. Import needs and upcoming debt repayments are adding to that pressure.
Foreign investment in Egyptian debt instruments may exceed $40 billion, with a substantial share still in the market, meaning the exchange rate will remain sensitive to any escalation or easing in regional tensions, Shafie said. He added that the current turmoil makes it difficult to predict the dollar-pound rate over the coming month.
Ibrahim Adel, an economic and financial analyst at Mubasher for Securities Trading, said the dollar’s rise above 53.50 pounds was driven by a combination of hot money outflows, higher global prices for basic commodities, especially oil, and a stronger dollar globally.
Adel told Al Manassa that these pressures have weighed on the pound, and that forecasts through the end of the first half of the year remain highly uncertain because they depend on regional tensions and any potential agreements among major powers in the region.
He said an improvement in geopolitical conditions or stabilization in global commodity prices could help the pound return to more stable levels, while continued tensions and rising prices could push the dollar to 54 or 55 pounds.
Egypt suffered a shortage of dollar liquidity in 2023 and 2024 after large investments exited the debt market, with outflows reaching about $20 billion in 2022. It did not regain investment momentum until after the sharp flotation of the pound in March 2024.
