Contrary to Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly’s assurances that Egypt does not need a new loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), recent talks with its mission did include discussions of a new financing program, two government sources told Al Manassa.
The first source, a senior official at the Ministry of Finance who requested anonymity, told Al Manassa that discussions with the IMF mission addressed the possibility of Egypt obtaining a new financing program of around $5 billion, which would begin once the current program ends in Dec. 2026.
Egypt signed its current loan agreement in Dec. 2022, and the program stalled in 2023 before gaining new momentum following the Ras El-Hekma deal, with the financing amount increased in March 2024 from $3 billion to $8 billion.
The government sources’ statements to Al Manassa regarding a new loan align with assessments by Standard Chartered analyst Bader Al Sarraf, who noted Egypt may seek a downsized IMF program worth less than $8 billion. The projections have sparked controversy due to their direct contradiction of the prime minister’s public assurances.
A second senior government source within the Cabinet, who also requested anonymity, told Al Manassa that discussions with the fund’s mission, which was conducting its latest review of the current loan agreement, touched on the question of the new loan. The source added, however, that the value under discussion ranges between $3 billion and $5 billion.
In April 2026, as the risks of the US war on Iran escalated, two sources had told Al Manassa that the government was considering a new agreement with the fund because of the war’s repercussions. But that idea soon receded, owing to the US truce that helped improve global economic conditions, a government source told Al Manassa.
What is different now, according to the finance ministry source, is that “despite US attempts to reach an agreement with Iran to end the war, the economic fallout from the conflict is still affecting Egypt, particularly with the rising cost of importing oil and gas because of the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
The Cabinet source said one of the IMF’s main current reservations, and a factor that would be decisive in reaching any new agreement with it, is its objection to delays in the privatization program.
“The government is counting on completing the state offerings program and attracting new foreign investments to support foreign currency resources, which would help meet the requirements of any new financing program with the IMF in the coming period,” the Cabinet source added.
Days ago, the government announced it had granted the Emirati company Alcazar Energy the concession to operate the Gabal El-Zeit renewable energy station, the first privatization deal in a long time, following postponements of several deals that drew the ire of the fund, which places privatization among the priorities of its reform program in Egypt.
