A rise in imports drove up Egypt’s trade deficit during the first nine months of fiscal year 2025/26 to reach $47.75 billion compared with $38.33 billion during the same period of fiscal year 2024/25, in an increase of 24.5%, according to a Central Bank statement issued on Sunday.
The statement said that “intermediate goods contributed to the 44.3% increase in non-oil imports due to their importance in the production process, thereby supporting higher economic growth rates.”
The non-oil manufacturing sector was the leading contributor to economic growth in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024/25, with a growth rate of 1.9%, according to the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development.
Payments for non-oil imports rose by about $8.3 billion to approximately $61.9 billion, compared with around $53.6 billion during the same comparison period, an increase of 15.6%, according to the Central Bank statement.
The statement also confirmed that the oil trade deficit increased by about $2.8 billion to reach a total of $13.1 billion, compared with around $10.3 billion during the same period the previous year, in a 26.8% increase. This was due to higher petroleum imports, which reached about $17.3 billion between July and March, compared with around $14.5 billion during the previous corresponding period.
At the end of March, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said the biggest challenge facing the government was rising energy prices due to the US-Iran war, including an increase of about $750 million per month in the cost of diesel imports alone.
The statement attributed the increase in petroleum imports to higher imported gas volumes worth about $2.6 billion, in addition to imported crude oil worth about $831.1 million during the same period the previous year, while imports of petroleum products declined by about $603 million.
It also noted that exports of petroleum products rose slightly by about $55 million to reach $4.2 billion, driven by an increase in natural gas exports of about $234.1 million and petroleum product exports of about $151 million, while crude oil exports fell by about $330 million.
Last year, the Ministry of Petroleum announced that fuel prices would remain unchanged until 2026, but it raised prices exceptionally in March after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp acceleration in global energy prices.
Last week, Madbouly said during a press conference following the government’s weekly meeting that oil had been trading at $69 a barrel before the war, before jumping to $93 a barrel and then to $120 after the war.
“We are in the peak of summer, consumption is increasing, and we must support the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation so it can recover the costs it incurred when oil prices reached $120 a barrel,” Madbouly explained.
Today’s Central Bank statement also showed that portfolio investments (hot money) in Egypt recorded net outflows of $4.4 billion, compared with net inflows of $2.1 billion during the same comparison period, driven by foreign investment outflows totaling $9.5 billion between January and March 2026, coinciding with the outbreak of the US-Iran war.
