US President Donald Trump said on Monday he had held “good and constructive talks” with unnamed Iranian officials and would delay any strikes on Iranian power stations for five days “until a ceasefire agreement is reached,” even as the Pentagon approved the deployment of several thousand troops to the Middle East.
The moves have raised fresh questions over whether Washington is seriously pursuing de-escalation or preparing for a ground assault to seize Kharg Island, one of the world’s biggest oil hubs.
The stakes are high because Kharg, in the Gulf, is the main artery of Iran’s oil economy, and any move against it could sharply widen the conflict. Reports in recent hours have pointed to mediation efforts and the possibility of direct talks in Turkey or Pakistan this week, but no official progress had been announced by Thursday.
Potential negotiations or military escalation?
Tehran has denied at both the political and military levels that it is negotiating with the United States, saying it cannot trust Washington again after two rounds of negotiations failed over months in which Iran was hit twice by Israel and the US. At the same time, multiple media reports point to intensified mediation in recent hours and the possibility of direct talks in Turkey or Pakistan this week to prevent the conflict from escalating into a nuclear war, but by the end of the week no official progress had been announced.
According to a Tuesday report published by The Washington Post, the Pentagon ordered the deployment of several thousand paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, while three warships carrying about 4,500 troops from the Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group moved closer to the region.
According to US officials cited anonymously by The Washington Post, Trump is considering a “significant escalation” in the war and is refusing to rule out deploying US forces on Iranian soil. Among the options under review by his administration is seizing Kharg Island.
Kharg is one of the world’s largest oil islands. It lies in the Persian Gulf, and Tehran exports about 90% of its oil from there, with loading capacity of about 7 million barrels a day, making it the true heart of Iran’s oil economy.
On March 13, the US military carried out strikes on the island, targeting about 90 sites, including naval mine storage facilities, missile sites, and other military positions, while Trump said at the time that the oil infrastructure had not been targeted “for reasons of decency.”
The US officials told The Washington Post that ground forces would likely seize the island quickly, but could also face a barrage of Iranian drones and missiles for as long as they remained there.
Two American political analysts further estimated in comments to Al Araby Al Jadeed today that Trump’s pullback from direct strikes on Iran did not reflect a real desire to calm the situation, but rather an attempt to rearrange the war’s dynamics in the region and occupy the oil island during the global markets’ Saturday holiday.
American political and military analyst Ginger Chapman, a member of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, said Trump backed away from striking Iranian power stations after realizing that such a move would amount to “crossing dangerously red lines,” potentially triggering devastating Iranian retaliation against Washington’s Gulf allies and possibly expanding the regional war to an uncontrollable level.
Chapman added, “The temporary deadline for negotiations with Iran expires on Friday, and any decision Trump makes on Friday will be carried out over the weekend to give the market time to absorb any potentially negative news.”
The same view was echoed by Frank Musmar, a University of Texas specialist in geopolitics and Middle East policy, who said Washington was likely to carry out a ground landing and try to occupy the island, and perhaps several other islands such as Qeshm, in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and place its administration under an international framework.
Tehran braces and warns
But Iran appears to have made its own preparations against the US plans. According to a CNN report citing US intelligence assessments, Iran has set ambushes and moved additional military forces and air defense systems to the island in recent weeks in preparation for a possible American operation.
According to CNN, US officials and military experts have warned of the major risks of any ground operation to seize the island, pointing to the possibility of heavy US casualties. Reports said the Iranian island is fortified with multiple layers of defense, including shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles and mines laid along its shores to repel any attempted US amphibious landing.
Retired Adm. James Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander of NATO, warned that the Iranians are “clever and ruthless. They will do everything they can to inflict maximum casualties on US forces both on the ships at sea,” and on the ground.
Stavridis told CNN that one option for pressuring Iran would be to impose a naval blockade on Kharg, disrupting oil exports without the need to land troops on the ground.
In Tehran, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned yesterday, Wednesday, against any attempt to occupy Iranian islands, saying all enemy movements were under close watch and threatening to target the critical infrastructure of any regional state that supports such a step.
The developments come as the US-Israeli war against Iran enters its 27th day, with the fighting fueling concern over energy supplies, pushing up oil prices, and raising fears of a new wave of global inflation.
