A sharp discrepancy has begun to emerge between the Pentagon’s public optimism and the vice president’s private concerns about missile stockpiles in the ongoing US–Israeli war on Iran.
The ceasefire between Washington and Tehran looks increasingly fragile. Direct negotiations in Islamabad collapsed recently after US President Donald Trump canceled a scheduled trip for his two special envoys. In a move pointing toward further escalation, the US has announced it is moving additional troops into the region—a trajectory reinforced by the president’s most recent post on Truth Social.
A recent report by The Atlantic, citing two unnamed senior officials, said that US Vice President J.D. Vance has been questioning the accuracy of the information the Pentagon is providing Trump.
Vance’s skepticism centers on claims that the Department of Defense (DoD) is understating the depletion of precision-guided munitions. This internal friction follows a CNN report citing three sources familiar with internal assessments, which warned that the US military has created a “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition for future conflicts.
These internal warnings are backed by a new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). According to the study, seven weeks of intensive bombardment have severely strained US inventories. The report finds that the US has expended at least 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs); at least half of its THAAD Interceptor inventory; and nearly 50% of its Patriot air defense interceptor missiles stockpile.
“The high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific,” Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps Colonel and CSIS senior adviser, told CNN. “It will take one to four years to replenish these inventories and several years after that to expand them to where they need to be.”
Between Claims and Reality
The war in Iran has dragged on far longer than the short-term victory initially promised by Trump. Despite this, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, continue to describe US stockpiles as “robust.” President Trump has echoed these sentiments, declaring repeatedly that US missile stockpiles are “virtually unlimited.”
However, advisers cited by The Atlantic suggest these sanguine portrayals are strategically timed. The Pentagon’s 8 am press briefings are held exactly when Trump is known to watch Fox News. “Pete’s TV experience has made him really skilled at knowing how to talk to Trump, how Trump thinks,” one former official noted.
Hegseth has also repeatedly depicted a battered Iran, describing its ballistic missile production capacity as “functionally defeated and destroyed.” Yet intelligence assessments paint a far more resilient picture of the Iranian military than the one offered in the president's morning briefings.
According to internal US intelligence estimates, Iran retains two-thirds of its air force and the bulk of its missile-launching capabilities. Crucially, Tehran maintains most of its small, fast-attack boats, which continue to patrol maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
The limits of the “complete control over Iranian skies” that Hegseth boasted of in March, were made clear just weeks later, when Iranian forces downed an American fighter jet, forcing an intensive and risky rescue operation.
The 2028 factor
Beyond strategic concerns, the friction reveals a brewing political battle for the 2028 Republican nomination. Both Vance and Hegseth appear to be tethering their political futures to the war’s outcome, albeit with opposing rhetoric.
On one hand, Vance has been a long-time critic of “forever wars.” Although his team views Hegseth’s reporting as “blustering” intended to please the president rather than inform him, he is attempting to balance his skepticism with loyalty to the administration.
The Defense Secretary, on the other hand, is using his high-profile wartime role to build up his upcoming voter base. Hegeseth’s rhetoric is intended to please America’s religious right and the National Rifle Association, signaling his future political intent.
As the war enters an indeterminate phase, the growing distance between the Pentagon’s briefings and the reality of the American arsenal—a distance rooted in political maneuvering—may become the most significant threat to the administration’s strategy in Iran.
