US, Iran, Ukraine, and the Gulf: A drone war of unequal costs

Ukraine has sent anti-drone specialists to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to help counter Iranian-made Shahed attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday, as Gulf states increasingly draw on Kyiv’s battlefield expertise amid mounting pressure on US-led air defences in the region.

The move reflects a broader shift in Gulf security thinking. After spending billions of dollars on US air-defense systems, regional states are looking for cheaper ways to counter waves of low-cost Iranian drones that can overwhelm expensive interceptor missiles. Ukraine, after years of fighting the same Shahed drones used by Russia, is offering interceptor drones and military expertise designed to stop dense swarms at a fraction of the cost.

“Regarding the situation in the Middle East, we have sent our teams. Three professional teams, fully staffed,” Zelensky said. The assistance follows a phone call on March 7 between Zelensky and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that helped pave the way for expanded defense cooperation between Kyiv and Gulf states.

“Ukrainians have been fighting against ‘Shahed’ drones for years now, and everyone recognizes that no other country in the world has this kind of experience,” Zelensky posted on X on March 5. “We are ready to help.”

The appeal of Ukraine’s approach comes as skyrocketing demand for US defensive missiles emerges as a critical constraint in the expanding US-Iran conflict, raising questions in Washington about whether the United States can sustain the pace of launches required in a prolonged missile war.

Since the war began, Iran has retaliated against US and allied positions across the Gulf with missiles and drones, forcing regional air defenses to fire large numbers of interceptors. A New York Times report said Middle Eastern defenses used more than 800 Patriot missiles in the first few days of the conflict alone.

That exchange highlights a stark cost imbalance. Ukrainian interceptor drones, which cost roughly $1,000 to $2,000 each, could provide a far cheaper defensive layer against large drone swarms without exhausting stocks of Western missiles that cost millions of dollars per launch.

Across the region, US Navy destroyers, Patriot air defense batteries, and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launchers are firing interceptors to destroy incoming ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones before they reach bases, cities or oil infrastructure. But every launch draws from a finite arsenal that also supports US missile defense commitments in Ukraine and East Asia.

US defensive missiles under strain

Iran signaled Sunday that it is preparing for a high-intensity conflict lasting up to six months, suggesting Tehran expects a drawn-out confrontation with the United States. Mohammad Naini, spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Tehran had prepared for a prolonged campaign, remarks that appear to challenge a reported Pentagon planning memo preparing US forces for sustained operations through September.

Donald Trump insisted that the United States has the military capacity to sustain the conflict “far longer if necessary,” even as fighting intensifies across the Gulf.

If the war continues at its current pace, analysts say the contest may become as much a test of industrial output as battlefield capability, with costly US interceptors being used to destroy far cheaper Iranian drones and missiles.

The steep cost of US interceptor missiles

The systems now in greatest demand are THAAD and Patriot. THAAD is designed to destroy short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles both inside and outside the atmosphere, and each interceptor costs roughly $13 million. During last year’s 12-day war, the United States used about 25% of its THAAD missile stockpile defending against Iranian attacks. At the time, defense contractors were producing roughly 96 interceptors per year.

The Patriot system, developed by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, protects against aircraft, cruise missiles and tactical ballistic missiles. Each interceptor can cost up to $5 million.

These costs contrast sharply with Tehran’s offensive arsenal. Iran’s Shahed drones cost around $50,000 apiece, while its ballistic missiles can cost between $1-2 million, according to the Atlantic.

Can the US defense industry keep up?

The United States is moving to sharply increase interceptor production as demand surges across multiple theaters.

On Friday, leading defense contractors including Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems and RTX Corp. met with President Donald Trump to discuss missile stockpiles and production capacity. Trump said in a Truth social post that the companies had agreed to significantly increase output after discussions on “Production and Production Schedules,” adding that manufacturers would “quadruple Production of the ‘Exquisite Class’ Weaponry” to reach higher inventory levels as quickly as possible.

In January, Washington secured a seven-year agreement with Lockheed Martin to expand production capacity for Patriot interceptors to about 2,000 missiles a year, up from roughly 600 previously, as the Pentagon seeks to replenish stockpiles strained by missile defense operations in Ukraine and the Middle East. However, a July report by the Guardian said existing inventories remained well below Pentagon planning targets.

Concerns over potential shortages are also emerging among US allies that rely on the same missile defense systems.

In Ukraine, shortages of Patriot interceptors have become a critical issue as Russia has launched repeated waves of ballistic missile attacks in recent months. President Zelensky’s latest move, comes after previously offering Ukrainian expertise and drone interceptor technology in exchange for desperately needed additional Patriot missiles from Gulf allies.

European officials have also warned privately about growing supply constraints. According to Bloomberg, several governments raised concerns about interceptor shortages during a closed-door meeting last week.

Demand is also rising in Asia, where intensifying security competition with China and North Korea is putting further pressure on missile defense inventories. South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Hyun confirmed Seoul is in talks with Washington about acquiring additional weapons systems, including Patriot air defense batteries.

Japan, which hosts Mitsubishi Heavy Industries production lines that manufacture Patriot missiles for Lockheed Martin, has also expressed concern about exporting additional units while maintaining its own defenses.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissed concerns about potential shortages during a press briefing Thursday at US Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Florida.

“Iran is hoping that we cannot sustain this, which is a really bad miscalculation for the IRGC in Iran,” Hegseth said. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need to.”

But analysts say the conflict is increasingly becoming a contest of inventories.

Fabian Hoffman, a fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, described the dynamic as a “race to the bottom of their aerial munition stockpiles.”

“Iran is seeking to deplete regional missile defense arsenals while inflicting damage on strategic and high-profile targets,” Hoffman said. “In contrast, the United States and Israel are attempting to locate and destroy Iranian transporter erector launchers before they can fire while also degrading command and control and missile production capacity.”

The coming weeks could help determine whether Iran can sustain the current pace of missile launches, a factor that could shape the trajectory of the conflict.