Iran and the Gulf’s balancing act under Washington’s shadow
The Gulf appears set to remain, in the coming days, a central frontline in the intensifying war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, particularly as Iranian attacks on US interests in the region continue to escalate.
Ongoing negotiations have so far failed to produce any meaningful de-escalation, nor have they spared the Arabian Gulf from the conflict’s fallout. Monday proved the most volatile day yet. Kuwait’s Ministry of Defense announced that several American fighter jets had crashed on its territory.
Iranian strikes on US bases inside Gulf states have prompted renewed speculation about the future of the tenuous relations between Tehran and Gulf capitals, amid one of the most dangerous military escalations the region has witnessed in years.
Diplomats and experts spoke to Al Manassa about fears of a broader regional confrontation, calculations tied to economic interests and energy security, and how the crisis may evolve in the coming period.
Gulf skies on fire
In the early morning hours, Kuwait’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement Monday detailing the circumstances surrounding the downing of the American fighter jets, indicating that an intense aerial battle had raged in its skies, and culminated in the unusual and significant loss of an F-15 fighter aircraft.
US Central Command said the incident occurred due to friendly fire. “During active combat—which included attacks from Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and drones—the US Air Force fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses,” it said.
At the same time, in Saudi Arabia, an official source at the Ministry of Energy announced that the Ras Tanura oil refinery sustained limited structural damage after debris from intercepted drones fell near the facility. The incident sparked a minor blaze but caused no injuries or fatalities. Some operational units were temporarily suspended as a precautionary measure, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
The war’s aftershocks continue to disrupt daily life, paralyze segments of regional economies, destabilize energy supply chains and investment flows, and hinder transport and aviation across the Gulf.
The war’s aftershocks continue to batter daily life, paralyze economies, disrupt energy supplies and investment, and hinder transport and aviation across the Gulf.
Dubai Ports World suspended operations at Jebel Ali port on Sunday. Shipping giant MSC announced it was halting all bookings for global shipments bound for the Middle East after a fire broke out at one of the port’s berths due to debris from an aerial interception. Operations resumed on Monday at all terminals.
On Sunday, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and the United States issued a joint statement condemning Iran’s attacks on the Gulf, describing them as “indiscriminate and reckless missile and drone attacks against sovereign territories across the region.”
The statement stressed that “The Islamic Republic’s actions represent a dangerous escalation that violates the sovereignty of multiple states and threatens regional stability,” adding that “the targeting of civilians and of countries not engaged in hostilities is reckless and destabilizing behavior.”
Strikes aimed at “US presence”
Iran has insisted it will continue targeting US military bases in the region as long as it remains under attack, a stance it has previously communicated to the United Nations secretary-general.
On Sunday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched a wave of missiles and drones at Israel and US bases in the Middle East in response to the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during Saturday’s joint US-Israeli assault.
The IRGC vowed that the armed forces “will take a different and severe retaliatory step.” In a statement on Telegram, it said, “We carried out a sixth wave of missile and drone attacks on Israel and US military bases in the region.”
It added that it targeted 27 US bases across the region, as well as Tel Nof base, the Israeli army’s general headquarters in HaKirya, and a major defense industrial complex in Tel Aviv.
On Tuesday the IRGC announced that its naval forces carried out a large-scale dawn attack using drones and missiles on the US airbase in the Sheikh Isa area of Bahrain. The IRGC added in its statement that it launched 20 drones and three missiles, which destroyed the base’s main command headquarters.
Former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister Ambassador Rakha Ahmed Hassan told Al Manassa that Iran’s prior announcement that it would target US bases in the region explains the nature of its response and diminshes the likelihood of a direct Gulf reaction, given that the strikes were primarily aimed at “the American presence.”
Hassan warned that Gulf states would suffer the most if the escalation turns into a full-scale war affecting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. He suggested that international economic pressure may ultimately play a decisive role in pushing the parties toward de-escalation.
On Sunday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery of global trade in the Gulf. Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported that Tehran had shut the strait, effectively paralyzing maritime traffic, particularly oil and gas tankers. More than 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, along with substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi warned on Sunday of the consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz during the Armed Forces’ annual iftar ceremony marking the anniversary of the 10th of Ramadan victory. He said the move could significantly affect petroleum imports and Suez Canal revenues.
What Washington wants
Mehdi Azizi, director of the Vision Center for Studies and an expert on Iranian affairs, sees the future of relations between Tehran and Gulf capitals as contingent on “American approval” of the Iranian regime.
Despite Gulf mediation efforts urging Washington not to strike Iran, Gulf states “do not have an independent political decision without Washington’s consent,” he told Al Manassa, describing them as “implementers of American policies rather than equal strategic allies.”
Former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister Ambassador Mohamed Hegazy identified three determinants for the next phase of Iranian-Gulf relations: the size and scope of the strike and its actual impact; the nature of the political messages accompanying it; and the ability of regional actors to contain and manage the escalation.
Hegazy said Gulf states are fully aware of the cost of open confrontation for energy security and regional economic stability. In recent years, this awareness has driven them to adopt a “pragmatic” approach toward Tehran based on de-escalation and managing disputes through direct and indirect diplomatic channels.
A cautious de-escalation
Hegazy expects the coming period to witness “a cautious de-escalation” punctuated by reciprocal deterrent messages, without descending into a complete diplomatic rupture. He noted that Iran is keen to avoid a comprehensive confrontation with its Gulf neighbors, while maintaining indirect pressure mechanisms in other arenas to preserve its negotiating leverage.
Yemeni political analyst Abdel Sattar Al-Shammiri shares that view. He predicted a gradual shift toward de-escalation driven by Iran’s internal necessities.
“It seems there is a new Iran increasingly preoccupied with internal challenges,” Al-Shammiri told Al Manassa. “Those who rule Iran are compelled to pursue a path of relative goodwill with their regional surroundings.”
He added that Iran has little choice. “Economic pressure, public anger, international isolation and the impact of war combined will push Tehran to behave like a state whose priority is domestic stabilization, rather than supporting militias or creating proxies.”
The Washington Post previously reported that pressure from Saudi Arabia and Israel contributed to US President Donald Trump’s decision to carry out the military strike as part of a broader recalibration of deterrence policy.
The report underscores how regional factors intersect with American decision-making, further complicating Gulf states’ efforts to manage their delicate relationship with Tehran.
The US-Israeli assault marked the second wave of joint strikes against Iran in recent months. In June 2025, Israel and Iran fought a 12-day war in which the United States participated by launching airstrikes it said were aimed at “deterring Tehran from developing its nuclear program.” Iran responded by firing missiles at the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar before Trump announced an agreement to end the war.